A State of Opportunity for Obama


As the presidential campaign enters the final weeks, North Carolina is still a battleground.  While the state has been reliably Republican for over 30 years, polls show that the race between Obama and McCain is in a dead heat and possibly leaning toward the Democrat.

For months, the McCain campaign has been noticeably absent from North Carolina while Obama has defied expectations and has steadily ramped up his operations.   John McCain’s visit this week was the first since the primaries.  In contrast, Obama, Biden or Michelle Obama has been in the state on virtually a weekly basis since the Democratic convention.

Republicans have been bemoaning the absence of the Arizona Senator, wondering why he’s not here while his poll numbers are falling.   What the McCain campaign realizes, but is not saying, is that North Carolina will not be the state that puts Obama over the top.   If North Carolina goes for Obama, McCain will most likely have already lost the race.

Obama, for his part, sees great opportunity in the state.  He has the resources to fight for North Carolina, forcing McCain to spend money here that he would prefer to spend elsewhere.  Obama leads McCain in eight states that Bush carried in 2004, while McCain does not lead in any states that Kerry won.   If Obama wins one of those eight states, he will most likely be the next president.

North Carolina has a lot at stake for a President Obama.  There are competitive races for U. S. Senate and governor and the possibility of picking up at least one Congressional District.  Obama’s organization and appeal to African-Americans, even if he loses the state, could bring Democratic wins up and down the ballot.

A Kay Hagan victory over Elizabeth Dole would be a major step toward a filibuster-proof 60-seat Democratic majority in the Senate.    Picking up Congressional seats would pad an increasingly comfortable margin in the House.  In addition, North Carolina could be in line for another Congressional seat after the 2010 census, increasing the state’s electoral value in an Obama re-election campaign in 2012.

The two presidential campaigns view North Carolina through different lenses.  For McCain, a loss in the state probably means he will never be president.  For Obama, even a narrow loss could be a victory.   His coattails could add to his governing majority in Congress and North Carolina would likely be competitive in presidential elections for years to come.

Thomas Mills is President of Thomas Mills Communications, a Democratic consulting firm based in Carrboro.