North Carolina Senate

Landing on the moon, Red Sox winning the World Series, and Elizabeth Dole failing to win re-election in North Carolina; all things that people had to see to believe.  The first two have been spotted and in one month’s time, so will the third. 

After the filing deadline, national Republicans were putting another race in the win column after the “A-List” Democratic candidates passed on challenging Elizabeth Dole, including two-term governor Mike Easley, two-term Attorney General Roy Cooper, and three-term Congressman Brad Miller (NC-13). Also, North Carolina had not elected a Democratic U.S. Senator during a presidential election year in 40 years. 

Dole was considered to be a political “Rock Star” and likely unbeatable this term.  She ran for the Republican nomination for president in 2000, served in the cabinets during both Bush presidencies, and was elected the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the first female to hold that position. 

On top of that, Dole was 20 points ahead in a mid-December Rasmussen poll of the leading Democratic candidate, Kay Hagan, a 5-term state senator from Greensboro.  Hagan drew closer as the primary heated up and North Carolina was abuzz with its first meaningful presidential primary in decades.  

Hagan’s high water mark was +1 in a poll conducted two days after the primary when she defeated four other candidates with 60% of the vote.  Dole’s lead went back up to double digits a month later as the glamour of the primary season wore off.   

Sen. Barack Obama’s dedication to winning North Carolina helped propel Hagan back into contention and back into the lead.  North Carolina has not been shaded blue on an electoral map since 1976 when the state went to Jimmy Carter, but Obama has visited the state more often than his Republican counterpart, since the conventions.  Like Obama, Hagan has been able to reach voters who are looking for change.  Hagan is significantly younger and not a part of the Washington establishment that so many voters frown upon.   

Hagan will certainly benefit from Obama’s coattails among Democrats, but Hagan also leads among voters under the age of 55 and Independent voters. Obama will drive up the turnout among these groups, helping Hagan.  Obama is also putting a lot of resources in to North Carolina and is bringing national money to the state. 

Hagan became competitive when the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) jumped into the game and firmly threw its support behind her.  In August, the DSCC spent nearly $1 million attacking Dole and pledged to spend $7 million after Labor Day.  So far they have come through, running ads that attack Dole’s record, connection to President Bush, her associations with big oil, and her stance on the economy. 

Hagan is also attacking Dole on her failure to help North Carolina.  Hagan recently tagged Dole as “Senator Nowhere” for Dole’s absence from the state.  The nickname is reminiscent of conservative former North Carolina U.S. Senator Jessie Helms also known as “Senator No.”  A survey by Media General News Service of Senate records, news accounts and press releases show that Dole was in North Carolina less than 2 weeks in 2006, and less than two months every year since her election until her campaign this year. 

Also, North Carolina is among the fastest growing states in the country, with the majority of the new voters coming from the northeast, where even some Republicans are more progressive than some Southern Democrats.  With these new voters, the identity of the state’s voting population is shifting, much like Virginia’s 

Hagan found herself in a double-digit hole in the polls entering August, but since spotlighting Dole’s ineffectiveness and her out of touch stances, Hagan has charged ahead and taken the lead in the two most recent polls.  Hagan sports a 3 point in a Rasmussen poll conducted 9/23 and an 8 point lead in a Public Policy Polling poll conducted 9/27-9/28. 

Both Hagan and Obama are making strides to conquer a state that has primarily voted red at the federal level and if trends hold true then both will continue to see their stocks rise in the Tar Heel state.