The Obama Factor in North Carolina

By all indications, North Carolina Democrats will have a say in nominating their presidential candidate for the first time in 20 years.    Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running neck-in-neck in the race for delegates and neither is likely to garner the 2025 needed to clinch the nomination before our May 6 primary.  That will leave North Carolina, with 134 delegates, as the last big state in play before the end of primary season on June 7.

The Barack-Hillary battle will certainly influence the primary here.  Traditional turnout models, those with the presidential nominees already determined, indicate a maximum of 750,000 voters would show up in the Democratic primary.  With a presidential campaign, those numbers are virtually meaningless.  Turnout may well reach 1 million or more. 

Obama, in particular, adds to the uncertainty of the race.  African-Americans make up about 38% of the Democratic Party.  However, in 2004, they comprised only 32% of the Democratic primary voters and in 2000, they made up only 28%.  This year, the figure will be much higher. 

Following the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, Obama and Clinton will be splitting their time, and money, between North Carolina and Indiana, the states that share the May 6 stage.  With at least two weeks of presidential ads in the state, African-Americans will know, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that a Black man has a chance to be the presidential nominee.  African-Americans could conceivably make up over 40% of the vote. 

In addition, Obama has been bringing people into the political process.  In state after state, younger voters have been going to the polls in record numbers.   In North Carolina's 2004 Democratic primary, voters under 50 made up only 24% of the electorate.   However, over 45% of registered Democrats are 18-49 years old.   These voters will likely play a significant role in a competitive presidential primary.

For Hillary's part, she will likely need to target Unaffiliated voters who have a choice to participate in either the Republican or Democratic primary.   Traditionally, these Independents have made up only a small portion of Democratic primary voters, even though they make up 21% of all registered voters.   However, with the likely barrage of TV, personal appearances and news stories, they may well prove to be force in Democratic politics this May.

While having national attention focused on the North Carolina this spring is exciting, an Obama nomination could put our state in play in the November general election for the first time since 1992.   African-Americans make up over 20% of the registered voters here but only made up 16% of the voters in the 2004 Presidential election.  With the prospect of an Obama presidency, African-American turnout would likely soar to levels we have never seen. 

In addition, the face of North Carolina is changing.   Suburban voters along the I-85/I-40 corridor increasingly make up the swing voters in the state.  Many of these new residents arrived here voting Republican but have been steadily changing their voting habits. 

In 2006, Ty Harrell, a young African-American, shocked the political establishment when he upset a six-term Republican state representative in a solidly white suburban district in Wake County.  Harrell won with a message that stressed moving beyond partisanship and building unity.  Obama's message of change transcends race and appeals to the same white suburban voters who elected Harrell.

Finally, John McCain will have a difficult task motivating rural conservatives who make up the Republican base in North Carolina.  They don't trust his moderate stances on issues like campaign finance and immigration reform.  And, while they may not like Obama, he does not inspire the hatred that conservatives reserve for the Clintons.

In that scenario, North Carolina looks like a state where Democrats could compete-African-Americans making up over 20% of the vote, white suburbanites responding to a message of change, and an uninspired Republican base.  Even if the national campaign did not target the state, an Obama candidacy would help Democrats up and down the ballot.

In contrast, Clinton represents, fairly or not, the divisive politics of the past 16 years.  She evokes a visceral reaction among conservatives and provides an easy target for ad campaigns hoping to energize the base.  Even if North Carolina were not in play, Republicans would wrap every North Carolina Democrat around the Clintons.  "Billary" would be the rallying cry that unifies and motivates conservatives otherwise demoralized by a McCain nomination.

Across the country, polls in rural swing districts show McCain beating Clinton by 20 points or more.  His lead over Obama is usually in single digits, often within the margin of error.  With Clinton on the ticket, down ballot Democrats in red and purple states will have to fight McCain coattails.  With Obama on the ticket in North Carolina, McCain will have no coattails and down-ballot Republicans will have to fight record African- American turnout.

Thomas Mills is Democratic political consultant based in Carrboro.  In 2004, he served as a direct mail consultant to the Kerry-Edwards campaign.  His is not affiliated with either the Obama or Clinton campaigns.